Iran gaining upper hand over US in Strait of Hormuz:Ships continue using Iranian route despite Trump’s threat; only 3 chose Omani route

Most ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz are concealing their identity or route. According to an Al Jazeera report, 236 ships passed through the strait between August 1 and 19, but the routes of 148 ships could not be clearly identified. These figures suggest that despite Trump’s threats, many ships are using the Iranian route. This raises the question of whether the US or Iran currently has greater control over the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump claims that the US military controls maritime traffic passing through the Strait of Hormuz. He has also indicated that the US could try to take responsibility for the area. Iran, meanwhile, says that no ship can pass through the Strait of Hormuz without Tehran’s approval. Amid the competing claims by the two countries, the biggest question is who actually controls this strategic waterway. Ship movement data provides an important indication. Different claims by Iran and the US Trump has also threatened to bomb Oman. Oman is a US ally and lies opposite Iran on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz. The maritime area of the strait falls under the jurisdictions of both Iran and Oman. Trump’s threat is reportedly aimed at preventing Muscat from reaching an agreement with Tehran on jointly operating the Strait of Hormuz. Hormuz divided into two routes after the war Before the war began, the Strait of Hormuz was considered to have a single maritime route. Ships travelled through a designated passage, with their route determined by their port, shipping arrangements and security considerations. But as tensions between the US and Iran increased, two separate routes began to be discussed. Routes of more than 80% of ships not known According to maritime intelligence company Kpler, 112 oil, LPG and LNG carriers passed through the Strait of Hormuz between August 1 and 19. Of these, 21 ships openly used the Iranian route, while only two used the Omani route. The routes of the remaining 89 ships were unclear. This means that the movements of more than 80% of the oil and gas vessels passing through the strait during this period could not be fully tracked. This happens when ships switch off their Automatic Identification System (AIS). In some cases, a ship’s AIS data also does not match Kpler’s designated Iranian or Omani routes. This makes it difficult to determine which route the vessel actually used. Iranian route also leads among all types of ships A total of 236 ships passed through the strait between August 1 and 19. These included vessels carrying dry cargo and chemicals, in addition to oil and gas. This means that the routes taken by more than six out of every 10 ships could not be clearly established. Why are ships switching off AIS? After the war began, both Iran and the US warned ships that did not follow the maritime routes or rules designated by them. In some cases, vessels were also attacked. As a result, several ships are switching off their transponders. This makes it difficult to determine their exact location and the route they are taking. Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at the UK think tank Chatham House, told Al Jazeera that switching off transponders makes a ship’s movements less visible. However, this also increases maritime security risks. According to him, some ship operators believe that, under the current circumstances, the benefits of continuing trade outweigh these security risks. Cargo also being transferred between ships at sea Another reason for switching off transponders is the transfer of cargo between ships at sea. Energy expert Mark Ayoub told Al Jazeera that some Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait, have sent some cargoes through the Omani route. For this, tracking of some vessels was switched off and cargo was transferred to other ships along the way. According to him, some Iranian ships are also using the Omani route. The aim is to evade sanctions and the US blockade. Do the figures point to Iran having greater influence? Since the routes of 148 ships are unclear, it is difficult to determine exactly how many vessels travelled through the Iranian or Omani routes. Even so, the available figures reveal one important trend. Despite the US blockade and Trump’s threats, one in every five ships openly travelled through the Iranian route. Looking at all types of ships together, 35% publicly used the Iranian route. In comparison, very few ships used the Omani or old central route. This suggests that many ships are willing to use the Iranian route despite US threats. In other words, under the current circumstances, the fear of angering Iran appears to be having a greater impact than Trump’s threats. Why is the Strait of Hormuz so important to the world? Before the US-Israel war against Iran began, around one-fifth of the world’s oil and LNG supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. At that time, around 130 ships passed through the strait every day. By comparison, only 236 ships passed through it during the first 19 days of August. Iran closed the strait in early March and allowed only ships from friendly countries to pass. Even after the signing of an MoU with the US on June 17, the waterway has remained the biggest point of contention between the two countries. The crisis has also affected global oil markets. Before the conflict began, Brent crude was around $66 per barrel. In March, it rose to $119. Prices later declined, but climbed again as tensions increased. On Thursday morning, Brent crude was trading at $92.9 per barrel. According to Neil Quilliam, if Tehran is perceived to be losing influence over ship movements, an important source of leverage for Iran in negotiations with the US could weaken.