Two months have passed since the war against Iran began, but no clear end is yet in sight. US President Donald Trump had described it as a short and decisive battle, but now the situation appears reversed. The war has paused, but it hasn’t ended. According to the IMF, before the war it was expected that global inflation would decrease from 4.1% to 3.8% this year. But now the opposite has happened, inflation is estimated to reach 4.4%. Common people are paying the biggest price of this war. According to Iranian human rights organizations, more than 3,600 people have died so far, of which more than 1,700 are civilians. Meanwhile, Harvard economist Linda Bilmes estimates that the total cost of this war has reached up to 1 trillion dollars. This means that inflationary pressure worldwide is certain to increase further. Experts say no real winner in this war US President Donald Trump has said many times that the US has achieved victory in many ways in this war. Melanie Sisson, Senior Fellow at Brookings Institute, told CNN that there is no real winner in this war. US has also not gained any major strategic advantage. Meanwhile, this conflict is no longer limited and its impact is visible across the entire world. The common people have suffered the most damage. People from Iran, Lebanon and Gulf countries to US and the entire world are paying the price for this. Additionally, the Iranian government has also intensified its crackdown on internal dissent. Since the beginning of the year, more than 600 people have been executed. The internet has been shut down in the country for eight weeks and the economy has also been severely affected. Government’s crackdown on common people in Iran The people of Iran are facing attacks from outside as well as enduring pressure from within the country. US and Israel have carried out attacks on thousands of locations in Iran, some of which have also targeted civilian infrastructure (such as electricity, water, etc.). Under the leadership of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the government appears more strict than before and is sending a message of crushing any opposition. Earlier, during the protests in December and January, thousands of people were killed. Additionally, the country’s economy has also been severely affected. This is leading to job losses and increasing poverty. Massive devastation in Lebanon as well The people of Lebanon have been caught in the ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel for several decades. A fragile ceasefire held until February, but the situation deteriorated when Israel killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Following this, Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel. In response, Israel began intense airstrikes and ground operations in Lebanon, stating its objective was to eliminate Hezbollah. According to Lebanon’s Health Ministry, more than 2,500 people have been killed in these attacks since March 2. Satellite images have revealed that Israel is adopting the same strategy it previously used in Gaza – that is, destroying entire villages. The situation is so dire that approximately 600,000 people from southern Lebanon have been forced to leave their homes. Israel has made it clear that these people will not be allowed to return home until the threat to northern Israel from Hezbollah is eliminated. Impact on Gulf countries’ economy Several Gulf countries have also been caught in the crossfire of this war. UAE has been affected the most. Iran has carried out the most missile and drone attacks here. Although most attacks were intercepted, heavy damage has occurred and this has dealt a blow to UAE’s image as a major business and tourism hub. Meanwhile, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has adversely affected the economies of Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait. These countries depend on this route for the supply of their oil, gas and other goods. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also reduced the economic growth estimates for these countries and acknowledged that the economies of Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait may contract this year. Inflation in US, impact on common americans The impact of this war is clearly visible on the pockets of common Americans. Petrol, air tickets, and many services have become expensive, as companies are now adding fuel surcharges to prices. The inflation rate has increased from 2.4% in February to 3.3% in March, and consumer sentiment is rapidly declining. According to the Brookings Institute, the American economy is largely dependent on oil. Meanwhile, investment in renewable energy (such as solar, wind) is still low, and this is now becoming a weakness. China and Russia benefit from this war China appears to be in a relatively stronger position from this war. China had already accumulated oil reserves and has been focusing on alternative energy for several decades. Additionally, the weakening of America’s image has given it diplomatic advantages. China’s oil and gas companies are also making profits. According to CNN, 6 major companies could earn profits of up to 94 billion dollars this year. Moreover, Russia’s economy appears to be benefiting from this war. Russia’s earnings have increased due to high prices of oil and fertilizers. Additionally, when oil prices were rising rapidly, America temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian oil at sea so that supply could increase, which further benefited Russia. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia’s energy earnings nearly doubled in March to reach $19 billion, which was $9.75 billion in February. Global growth rate decreased from 3.3% to 3.1% The impact of this war is now becoming visible on the pockets of common people across the world. The IMF has also reduced the global growth forecast. Now the world economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3.1% this year, whereas in January this estimate was 3.3%. Fertilizer prices have also seen a sharp increase. Countries where people are more dependent on agriculture and spend a large portion of their earnings on food are directly and more severely affected by this inflation. Trump’s popularity declined due to war situation This war was a big gamble for Donald Trump. He had promised to end it quickly, but so far neither has Iran backed down nor has the war ended. A CNN poll revealed that his popularity has also dropped to 37%. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gained a strategic advantage initially, but now even there people believe that victory in the war is not clear. Iran’s regime has also suffered losses, but the new leadership appears more aggressive. Additionally, by demonstrating control over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has shown its capability to create global pressure.
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