What does Bengal’s record 92% voter turnout indicate?:Who stands to gain – Mamata or BJP? Expert insights analysis from past elections

West Bengal witnessed around 92% voter turnout on 152 seats in the first phase of state elections. If this pattern continues for the 142 seats in the second and final phase, it will be the highest voter turnout ever in Bengal. In the 2021 assembly elections, 82% votes were cast. After Independence, a total of 17 assembly elections have been held in West Bengal, and the government has changed 4 times. In 3 of these, the government changed after turnout either decreased or increased by more than 4.5%. The fourth time, in 2011, when Mamata Banerjee ended the Left’s 34-year rule, voting increased by 2.4%. Why was there such high voting in Bengal this time, and who will benefit from it, TMC or BJP? Let’s understand the full story from the analysis of past elections and experts First, understand why there is a record high voting in Bengal this time? Reason-1: 91 lakh names removed from SIR, but the number of voters remains the same Reason-2: TMC and BJP mobilized women by making promises Reason-3: Deployment of 2.4 lakh personnel for elections Reason-4: Anti-incumbency or pro-incumbency factor regarding Mamata Who will benefit from such high voting, the BJP or Mamata? This means it is difficult to predict who will benefit from an increase in voter turnout. An analysis of past elections in West Bengal also does not reveal any clear pattern. In 17 elections since independence, voting has decreased/increased by more than 4.5% 9 times. Out of these, there was a change of government only 3 times, while the incumbent government remained in power 6 times. Political expert Prabhakarmani Tiwari believes that TMC can benefit from SIR’s displeasure. Senior journalist Suman Bhattacharya says that such high voter turnout can prove to be a challenge for the BJP. Because the area where voting took place in the first phase is a BJP stronghold. Meanwhile, more voters, especially women, came out to teach the BJP a lesson in minority-dominated seats. After SIR, the Bihar elections saw a 10% increase in voting, benefiting BJP