How Raghav Chadha quietly secured two-thirds of MPs:Will AAP face Shiv Sena-like fate? 6 questions answered

24 April 2026, afternoon. A political bombshell went off, one whose rumblings had been heard for weeks. AAP Rajya Sabha MP Raghav Chadha, in a press conference, said: ‘we will merge two-thirds of AAP’s members in the Rajya Sabha with the BJP.’ AAP has a total of 10 MPs in the Rajya Sabha. Raghav Chadha claimed that 7 MPs are with him, Harbhajan Singh, Swati Maliwal, Sandeep Pathak, Vikramjit Sahni, Rajendra Gupta and Ashok Mittal. That is more than two-thirds. However, not all MPs have publicly confirmed this yet. How did Raghav Chadha arrive at the two-thirds number, does this pose a serious threat to AAP’s existence, and what does the BJP stand to gain? Let’s understand in today’s explainer… Since when were there signs that Raghav Chadha might do this? On 2 April 2026, AAP removed Raghav from the post of Deputy Leader in the Rajya Sabha. However, his divergence from Arvind Kejriwal had been visible for nearly two years… On 21 March 2024, ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, when Kejriwal was arrested in the alleged liquor policy case, AAP leaders and workers protested. Raghav neither spoke nor posted anything. Speculation grew that he was at odds with Kejriwal. At the time, AAP leader Saurabh Bharadwaj said there was no internal rift and that Raghav was in the UK recovering from eye surgery. After returning, Raghav met Kejriwal at his residence on 18 May. Yet, he continued to stay away from protests over Kejriwal’s arrest. Later, he began raising public issues in Parliament, avoiding the party line. In February 2025, when Delhi election results came in, AAP suffered a major defeat, winning just 22 seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party secured 48 and formed the government. Raghav remained silent and absent from party events. By early 2025, AAP symbols and branding began disappearing from his social media. Internal discussions suggested he was focusing on personal branding. On 27 February 2026, the Rouse Avenue Court acquitted Kejriwal and others in the CBI case linked to the liquor policy. AAP celebrated, but Raghav was absent. In March, when Sanjay Singh was asked about Raghav’s inactivity, he said, ‘Only he can answer that.’ Raghav’s name was missing from AAP’s list of star campaigners for elections in Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry. On 2 April, he was removed as Deputy Leader in the Rajya Sabha. Finally, on 24 April 2026, Raghav resigned from AAP and announced the merger with BJP along with two-thirds of AAP’s Rajya Sabha MPs. Why and how did Raghav Chadha secure the ‘two-thirds’ number? This calculation is designed to bypass the anti-defection law. Under the law, if an MP voluntarily leaves a party or defies the party whip, their membership is terminated. The only legal route to retain membership is if at least two-thirds of a party’s elected members break away together and merge with another party. Raghav wanted to ensure that he and his colleagues could join the BJP without losing their seats. Hence, 7 out of AAP’s 10 MPs are moving together. He reportedly brought together key figures including Sandeep Pathak, newly appointed Deputy Leader Ashok Mittal, and Harbhajan Singh. This did not happen overnight, it had been in preparation for some time. One prominent name among the rebels is Swati Maliwal, who had been at odds with AAP for two years. In May 2024, she alleged that during a visit to Kejriwal’s residence, his aide Bibhav Kumar assaulted her. Since then, she remained isolated from the party and was widely expected to join the BJP. Ashok Mittal’s case is also notable. On 15 April, the ED conducted raids at his residence and at LPU, where he is Chancellor. AAP alleged that Raghav facilitated these raids by coordinating with top BJP leadership. Could AAP face the same fate as Shiv Sena or NCP? AAP has termed this development ‘Operation Lotus’. Sanjay Singh alleged that MPs were being poached using pressure from agencies like ED and CBI. This raises comparisons with Shiv Sena and NCP. In 2022, Eknath Shinde split Shiv Sena by taking two-thirds of its MLAs and aligning with the BJP. Later, Ajit Pawar used a similar formula to split the NCP. After prolonged legal battles, the Election Commission recognised the Shinde faction as the real Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar faction as the real NCP. However, AAP’s situation is different, for now. Those splits occurred in state assemblies, affecting governments. This break is in the Rajya Sabha, where AAP has only 10 MPs. Such a split does not topple governments. The real risk lies ahead. If a similar pattern reaches the Punjab Assembly, where AAP has 92 MLAs, then a Shiv Sena-like scenario could unfold. Punjab remains AAP’s strongest base. Is the Punjab government under threat right now? No immediate threat exists. In the 2022 elections, AAP won 92 seats, securing a massive majority. Congress got 18, Shiromani Akali Dal 3, and BJP 2. Bhagwant Mann became Chief Minister. Constitutionally, the government remains stable. It is said Raghav was also unhappy because the party prioritised Bhagwant Mann over him in Punjab. Among the MPs leaving AAP, apart from Swati Maliwal, the rest have roots in Punjab. Harbhajan Singh has influence in the Jalandhar-Doaba belt. Vikramjit Sahni leads a global Punjabi organisation and has strong NRI connections. Ashok Mittal is the founder of LPU. After Raghav’s exit, Sanjay Singh called it BJP’s ‘Operation Lotus’ and accused defectors of betraying Punjab’s people. What options does AAP have now? AAP can approach the Rajya Sabha Chairman seeking disqualification of the MPs. However, the anti-defection law does not apply if two-thirds of members defect together. That is why Raghav claims 7 out of 10 MPs are leaving. AAP’s last option is to persuade even one MP to stay back. That would break the two-thirds threshold and allow the party to pursue disqualification. What does the BJP gain from Raghav Chadha and his team? The BJP stands to gain both at the Centre and in states. Impact on Punjab elections:
Punjab is AAP’s only governing state. Elections are due next year. Most defecting MPs are from Punjab, and Raghav played a key role in AAP’s 2022 campaign strategy. Strength in the Rajya Sabha:
The NDA currently has 141 MPs, including 106 from the BJP. With 7 more MPs, the tally rises to 148. However, this still falls short of the two-thirds majority (164 MPs) needed for constitutional amendments. Raghav Chadha’s popularity:
Raghav is active on social media and popular among youth. His focus on everyday issues—like gig workers and mobile recharge costs—has earned public support. The BJP could benefit from this appeal.