The ongoing war between the US and Iran has started showing its impact on kitchens worldwide. According to a UN report, global food prices have reached their highest level in the past three years. Data released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on Friday shows the Food Commodity Price Index rose by 1.6% in April, 2.5% higher than last year. The main reason for this surge is the disruptions in the supply chain of vegetable oil (cooking oil), meat, and grains. Problems compound due to the closure of Hormuz Strait The Iran war has now entered its 10th week. The Hormuz route is closed. The movement of essential agricultural supplies like diesel and fertilizer through this route has stopped. With fertilizer and fuel becoming expensive, farming has become difficult for farmers, which will have a direct impact on food prices in the coming days. Vegetable oil and meat prices increased the most According to the report, vegetable oils have been most affected. With rising crude oil prices, the demand for bio-fuel has increased, causing the Vegetable Oil Index to rise by 5.9% compared to March. This is the highest level since July 2022. Meanwhile, the Meat Index has increased by 1.2%, which is an all-time record. Grain prices have also seen a rise of 0.8%. Inflation expected to rise further FAO’s Chief Economist Maximo Torero explained in an interview that the agri-food industry has survived so far because companies are selling old stock. He said, “As soon as the increased costs of raw materials and energy hit companies’ accounts, we as consumers will face a severe shock of inflation.” He warned that if this tension extends beyond 90 days, the possibility of a ‘Global Food Crisis’ will increase significantly by the end of 2026 and in 2027. Concerns of reduced grain production Reports of bad weather and reduced wheat sowing in 2026 have also increased grain prices. Due to rising fertilizer prices, farmers are now considering growing crops that require less fertilizer use. Experts believe that it will take some time for this surge in the commodity market to reach the retail market, but an increase in food inflation is now certain. Prices of 16 out of 20 essential items increased by up to 36% According to Bank of Baroda’s ‘Essential Commodity Index’, India’s inflation index increased by 1.1% annually and 0.3% on a monthly basis in April. This is the fastest monthly increase since August 2025. Last month, prices of 16 out of 20 essential commodities increased. A price increase of up to 36% in cooking oil, tomatoes and other essential items has pushed retail inflation to 4% in April. There is a risk of inflation increasing further in the coming months as prices continue to rise in May as well.
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