US President Trump, in a letter to the US Congress, said that the ‘hostilities that began with Iran on 28 February have now ended’. He also said that the US is reviewing the proposal sent by Iran. So far, there has been no official declaration of a ceasefire between Iran and the US, but there are 4 major signals suggesting that, behind the scenes, Trump has already ended the war… Signal 1: Trump tells US Congress — ‘Hostilities with Iran have ended’ In the United States, the President is granted special powers during wartime. However, these come with legal limits and rules. Under the 1973 ‘War Powers Resolution’, if the President deploys troops for war, he must report this to Congress. The President can request an additional 30 days to withdraw troops, but Trump did not do so. He said US forces would remain in the Middle East due to potential Iranian threats, and that the Department of Defense would continue briefing Congress. A two-week ceasefire began on 7 April, set to last until 22 April. Talks before that had failed. The ceasefire has continued since then, with no attacks from either side. Signal 2: Trump appeared serious about the proposal for an agreement with Iran The US sent Iran a 9-point proposal. According to Iranian media reports, Iran responded via Pakistan with a 14-point plan. Trump, however, said the Iranian proposal may not be acceptable, adding that Iran has not yet paid the full price for its actions over the past 47 years. He also warned of renewed strikes if Iran makes any misstep. Signal 3: Trump shifts his stance on a deal with Iran for the first time On 6 March, Trump said there would be no deal and that Iran must surrender unconditionally. However, after Iran retaliated strongly, Trump began pushing for negotiations. On 1 April, he warned that if Iran did not reopen Hormuz, it would face devastating attacks. He set a 7 April deadline, threatening strikes on power plants and civilian sites. Just hours before the deadline, however, a ceasefire was announced. After talks in Pakistan failed, Trump declared a blockade outside Hormuz. On 23 April, he said: ‘We are now watching to see what deal can be made. If not, the remaining 25% targets will be struck. I am in no hurry; I have plenty of time.’ On 1 May, Trump said for the first time that no deal might be preferable: ‘Frankly, no deal may be better. We cannot let this drag on. It has gone on too long.’ Signal 4: Trump’s new strategy — long-term blockade instead of strikes According to CNN, Trump has told top advisers he prefers a prolonged blockade of Iranian ports to weaken Iran economically and force negotiations without restarting war. His team is preparing to sustain pressure around the Strait of Hormuz. In a conversation with CNN journalist Kaitlan Collins, Trump suggested the Iran conflict could follow a prolonged timeline like the Russia–Ukraine war, which has lasted over four years. In an interview with Axios, he said blockades are more effective than bombing, adding that Iran is being ‘choked’ and conditions will worsen. Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen, or has the war ended inconclusively? Iran is not willing to relinquish control over Hormuz. Ship movement has nearly halted. Before the war, around 130 ships passed daily; now fewer than 10 do. Iranian Deputy Speaker Hamidreza Hajibabaei said a new law is being prepared that would restrict passage of Israeli and ‘enemy’ vessels unless compensation is paid. Meanwhile, since 13 April, the US has imposed a blockade in the Gulf of Oman. US Central Command says 48 ships have been diverted away from Iranian ports in the past 20 days. Iran insists the US must lift the blockade first, while Trump aims to increase economic pressure through prolonged restrictions. Professor Mohammad Elmasry of Doha says the US believes Iran will soon face severe oil-related challenges, but this assessment may not be entirely accurate. Iran is using Syria as an alternative corridor. Iraqi oil tankers are transporting crude by road to Syria’s Baniyas port for export to Europe. Though expensive, it provides a temporary workaround. Georgetown University’s Mehran Kamrava says Iran cannot sustain a blockade indefinitely. The current situation may remain a temporary pause, but it is unlikely to last for months or years. Is there a risk of the war restarting? While Trump has signalled restraint, he remains firm on preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Iran says nuclear talks should begin only after the blockade is lifted. It believes this sequencing would ease a broader agreement, end the war, and secure guarantees against future attacks. In return, Iran may reopen maritime routes and the US could lift sanctions. Trump has rejected this proposal. Meanwhile, Iranian military officials, including Mohammad Jafar Asadi, have warned that conflict could resume, stating Iran is fully prepared to respond. Kamrava concludes that the current situation is a suspended conflict. However, a scenario without war and without agreement would be costly for both sides and cannot persist indefinitely.
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